In its cycle of evolution as modeled by Gartner, blockchain is at the “pit of disillusion” stage.
Interest in blockchain is at an all-time low … or almost. In any case according to Gartner.
Under the registered trademark “Hype Cycle”, the American firm has modeled the typical evolution cycle of new technologies.
This results in a curve which describes five stages.
The blockchain is at the third: the “chasm of disillusionment”. At this stage, interest decreases, the consequence of a reality that does not live up to expectations.
Other types of decentralized registries and cryptocurrency mining are at the same level.
Some solutions, including identities and decentralized databases, are still on the upswing, towards the “peak of exaggerated expectations”.
Phase 4 (the “slope of enlightenment”) would start in 2021. It will be marked by a better understanding of the technology and its contributions. More companies will then experiment.
Mass adoption (so-called “productivity plateau” phase) would not begin until 2028 *. Even if certain uses would mature upstream, in particular in the interoperability of blockchains and the portability of smart contracts.
Gartner lists several things to watch out for:
- The merger between Ethereum and Hyperledger through the Basu project
- The initiatives Polkadot and Cosmos for the interoperability of public blockchains
- Transparency on the operation of smart contracts, their portability (through truffle and DAML) and the issue of key management
* Users will no longer have to worry about platform, interfaces and consensus algorithms by then, says Gartner.