After the initial effervescence, any innovation passes through this critical phase where it must prove itself… or take the path to the cemetery of stillborn revolutions. The Blockchain is where it is today.
Exit the fever of ICOs, exit the enthusiastic adoption by the innovation departments, the time has come for the evaluation, by the executive committees, of its real ROI. And the answer is not obvious.
Indeed, to have business value, a Blockchain project must meet 4 criteria:
– rely on a technological solution and a mature framework;
– offer specific user value compared to a centralized system;
– offer prospects for cost reduction (or better still new business);
– do (clearly) better than the “off-chain” system that we intend to replace (and which is already amortized, very often).
However, if we take the profitability prospects interviewed two years ago, the reality is disappointing. Cryptocurrencies, for their part, are too volatile to compete with FIAT currencies and lack a legal framework to rally major operators (despite promising initiatives such as the recent JP Morgan Coin).
The projects of new governance of commercial consortia, moreover, are complex because they require to align new business practices on a still changing technical framework as shown by the Energy Web Foundation or R3 in the banking sector.
Finally, the famous “disruption of the trusted third party” comes up against… the efficiency, precisely, of existing trusted third parties (from notaries to Euronext), deemed reliable and correctly integrated into the processes in economies capable of financing a possible transition.
Thus, on the side of virtual currencies, contractual automation and notarization – three of the families of use cases initially considered to be the most promising – the entry ticket for the new world of Blockchain often appears too high compared to to the expected benefits on the old one.
Traceability and tokenization, unique advantages
So is it “Blockchain winter” as some prophesy? A few local microclimates are already hinting at spring; two cases of application, in particular, stand out clearly.
On the one hand, traceability. No system makes it possible to “track” a sector better than the Blockchain. In addition to the absolute reliability of the data, it makes it possible to monitor countless indicators (origin, quality, climate and carbon impact, etc.), to return them in a variety of ways (from the QR code to the block explorer) and to promote them all along the chain much more efficiently than current labels or certifications.
Thus, thanks to the Blockchain, the same tool makes it possible to structure a customer-supplier network, to feed the CSR report and to secure the end consumer.
B-to-B initiatives, for example applied to the monitoring of agricultural products (but not only), are already solid and dissemination to the general public imminent. The ROI ranges from improving supply chains (everywhere) to additional sales (in sectors in crisis of confidence).
We are of course thinking of those affected by counterfeiting (luxury goods, medicines, spare parts, etc.) or by the lack of readability (environment, energy, food industry, etc.). The actors who stay away from the movement are clearly putting themselves at risk in the long term.
On the other hand, tokenization. The Blockchain natively carries the main tools of a market: identification of counterparties, creation of assets, portfolio management, settlement-delivery, etc. The registration of assets in the form of tokens therefore makes it possible to benefit from immediate infrastructures, more efficient and at lower cost. Most operators in the main markets test the ROI of the Blockchain in this context, individually or within an alliance such as Komgo.io.
But above all, the Blockchain offers prospects for sectors where the market is poorly or poorly structured. We think, for example, of peer-to-peer energy exchanges, the voluntary carbon offsetting market or the monitoring of impact indicators such as those of the sustainable development objectives. In this context, the Blockchain does not do better than the market: it creates the market.
ROI should not be a priority today
In short, if the Blockchain is still struggling to establish and prove its ROI on well-structured subjects despite recognized technological added value, it offers tremendous economic perspectives on the fragile or emerging aspects of our economy. It stands out as the best response to crises of confidence or to the need to offer market mechanisms to the new economy: that of climate transition. In other words, on the main issues, in all likelihood, for the years to come.
The question of ROI is therefore only a question of time and / or urgency. And on this aspect, the legal, fiscal and regulatory framework and market initiatives will be essential accelerators… or critical brakes.
Will the “blockchain nation” called for by the French public authorities be there? At this point, the answer is not certain.
